Its own screen, whole market

Pre-market leader

Sessions

first reading at 60

Mean return

-0.36%

Open to close, per session

vs S&P 500

-0.27%

t = -0.27

Verdict

no verdict yet

22 of the 60 sessions before the first reading. No verdict until then.

The hypothesis, as registered

What trades up before the open on a liquid name is informed money. The replay says the very largest pre-market gaps lose; this tests the moderate band, on names too large to be pumped.

The rule

Among stocks with average volume over 2M and price over $10 that have traded in the pre-market by the time the bench runs — around 8:00 AM New York, once the models have finished: pre-market gap between +2% and +15% against yesterday's close. Take the largest. Abstains when nothing qualifies.

Registered on 2026-09-07. Neither text has changed since, and neither will: a strategy that needs amending is retired and a new one registered in its place.

Session by session

Newest first. The numbers in the middle column are the ones the rule actually read that morning. Losing days stay.

Session	Pick	What the rule read	Return	vs S&P 500
2026-10-14	VGVenture Global, Inc. Class A common stock	pre-market gap +5.86% · average volume 12,615k · 1-day return +5.41%	pending	pending
2026-10-13	FIGSFIGS, Inc. Class A	pre-market gap +11.85% · average volume 3,442k · 1-day return +12.42%	+1.12%	+1.04%
2026-10-12	NVAXNovavax, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.62% · average volume 7,963k · 1-day return +15.80%	no price found	—
2026-10-09	ERASErasca, Inc.	pre-market gap +9.93% · average volume 5,085k · 1-day return +9.49%	no price found	—
2026-10-08	WOLFWolfspeed, Inc. Common Stock New	pre-market gap +12.47% · average volume 2,921k · 1-day return -1.45%	-11.42%	-11.30%
2026-10-07	CTVACorteva	pre-market gap +12.91% · average volume 23,389k · 1-day return +12.27%	no price found	—
2026-10-06	NUNu Holdings	pre-market gap +13.77% · average volume 82,865k · 1-day return +13.03%	+1.36%	+1.24%
2026-10-05	IBRXImmunityBio, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.76% · average volume 12,969k · 1-day return +10.83%	no price found	—
2026-10-02	SNPSSynopsys	pre-market gap +14.03% · average volume 2,277k · 1-day return +12.78%	-2.02%	-1.90%
2026-10-01	BRZEBraze, Inc.	pre-market gap +10.58% · average volume 2,787k · 1-day return +8.42%	-2.66%	-2.61%
2026-09-30	CCLCarnival Corporation	pre-market gap +12.67% · average volume 25,627k · 1-day return +13.41%	-3.35%	-2.85%
2026-09-29	ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc. - Common Shares	pre-market gap +12.05% · average volume 4,371k · 1-day return +9.61%	+4.96%	+5.30%
2026-09-28	USDEStablecoinX Inc.	pre-market gap +14.62% · average volume 5,761k · 1-day return +21.31%	-7.66%	-7.30%
2026-09-25	TXG10x Genomics, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.27% · average volume 2,721k · 1-day return +11.23%	+2.33%	+1.99%
2026-09-24	SECZSecuritize Corp.	pre-market gap +10.08% · average volume 3,636k · 1-day return +10.46%	+12.68%	+12.27%
2026-09-23	TNGXTango Therapeutics, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.53% · average volume 2,483k · 1-day return +2.67%	-3.74%	-3.10%
2026-09-22	APPSDigital Turbine, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.55% · average volume 2,672k · 1-day return +13.04%	+0.08%	+0.17%
2026-09-21	BMNRBitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.61% · average volume 47,442k · 1-day return +8.79%	+2.50%	+1.56%
2026-09-18	TEMTempus AI, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.72% · average volume 8,230k · 1-day return +14.85%	-4.37%	-4.42%
2026-09-17	UDRUDR, Inc.	pre-market gap +13.12% · average volume 3,444k · 1-day return -1.46%	-1.07%	-1.00%
2026-09-16	SWKSSkyworks Solutions	pre-market gap +14.33% · average volume 7,129k · 1-day return +13.55%	-4.23%	-3.52%
2026-09-15	ZSZscaler, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.81% · average volume 3,268k · 1-day return +16.52%	+2.86%	+3.22%
2026-09-14	HTFLHeartflow, Inc.	pre-market gap +9.32% · average volume 2,592k · 1-day return +9.65%	-0.29%	-0.54%
2026-09-11	SWKSSkyworks Solutions	pre-market gap +9.62% · average volume 5,949k · 1-day return +9.79%	+4.56%	+4.61%
2026-09-10	BIAFbioAffinity Technologies, Inc.	pre-market gap +14.22% · average volume 7,853k · 1-day return +17.58%	-1.26%	-1.24%
2026-09-09	SMRNuScale Power Corporation Class A	pre-market gap +13.32% · average volume 34,193k · 1-day return +15.26%	-1.82%	-1.60%
2026-09-08	BEBloom Energy Corporation Class A	pre-market gap +14.41% · average volume 11,970k · 1-day return +7.35%	+3.53%	+3.94%

Best session +12.68%, worst -11.42%. Over this few sessions the mean is mostly the sum of its two or three largest days, which is the whole reason the verdict is read only after 60, 120, 250, 500 sessions and frozen in between.

This is not investment advice. Tickbird is an automated experiment. It publishes a general analysis, not a personal recommendation, and it makes no promise about any outcome. Past results do not predict future ones. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.