No cherry-picking
The numbers
Each daily pick is bought at the open and sold at the close of the same session, with 0.1% simulated trading costs. No leverage, no hindsight: the 2 sessions below are every session that was ever published.
Sessions measured
2
Closed up
100%
Beat the S&P 500
100%
Median day
+2.28%
Average day
+2.28%
Edge over the S&P 500
+2.64%
average per session
Best day
+3.34%
Worst day
+1.21%
Simulated capital against the market
+4.59% cumulative against -0.73% for the S&P 500 over the same sessions.
Does our conviction mean anything?
We label every pick before the session opens, so this split cannot be rigged after the fact. If the high conviction row does not end up ahead of the others over time, our conviction label is worthless and we will say so here.
What if you took all three?
Counting the runner-up and third pick, 4 stocks have been measured in total, 100% of them closing up, for an average of +3.72% per stock.
How to read this honestly
- The share of days that closed up tells you how often we were right, not how much you made. One bad day can wipe out several good ones.
- Beating the S&P 500 is the number that matters. Gaining 1% on a day the whole market gained 1.5% is not a win, it is a loss dressed up as one.
- Below roughly twenty sessions, everything on this page is still mostly luck. Treat it as such until the sample grows.
- These results are simulated on official open and close prices. A real order also pays a spread, which is only approximated here.
The session-by-session detail lives on the track record page.