Its own screen, whole market

Pre-market fade

Sessions

first reading at 60

Mean return

-0.66%

Open to close, per session

vs S&P 500

-0.62%

t = -0.98

Verdict

no verdict yet

25 of the 60 sessions before the first reading. No verdict until then.

The hypothesis, as registered

Pre-market trading is thin and overshoots. A liquid stock marked down a few percent before the open, on no catastrophe, recovers part of the gap once the session brings real volume. The mirror image of the pre-market leader.

The rule

Among stocks with average volume over 2M and price over $10 that traded in the pre-market: gap between −8% and −2% against yesterday's close — the floor excludes the earnings disasters. Take the largest drop. Abstains when nothing qualifies.

Registered on 2026-09-07. Neither text has changed since, and neither will: a strategy that needs amending is retired and a new one registered in its place.

Session by session

Newest first. The numbers in the middle column are the ones the rule actually read that morning. Losing days stay.

Session	Pick	What the rule read	Return	vs S&P 500
2026-10-14	VKTXViking Therapeutics, Inc.	pre-market gap -5.40% · average volume 9,451k · 1-day return -5.96%	pending	pending
2026-10-13	NBISNebius Group N.V.	pre-market gap -7.88% · average volume 16,053k · 1-day return -4.98%	no price found	—
2026-10-12	ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.	pre-market gap -7.43% · average volume 13,506k · 1-day return -10.48%	-3.55%	-3.46%
2026-10-09	RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc.	pre-market gap -7.17% · average volume 17,015k · 1-day return -9.17%	-0.68%	-0.98%
2026-10-08	CIFRCipher Digital Inc.	pre-market gap -8.00% · average volume 34,284k · 1-day return -6.06%	-5.00%	-4.88%
2026-10-07	TWLOTwilio	pre-market gap -7.80% · average volume 4,469k · 1-day return -6.81%	-1.93%	-2.11%
2026-10-06	AADXApplied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.	pre-market gap -7.76% · average volume 2,254k · 1-day return -8.87%	+1.72%	+1.60%
2026-10-05	THTarget Hospitality Corp.	pre-market gap -7.47% · average volume 2,839k · 1-day return -8.01%	+0.37%	-0.30%
2026-10-02	SLSSELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc.	pre-market gap -7.31% · average volume 6,409k · 1-day return -7.96%	+2.09%	+2.21%
2026-10-01	MRNAModerna	pre-market gap -7.84% · average volume 14,762k · 1-day return -5.35%	+1.57%	+1.62%
2026-09-30	DKNGDraftKings Inc.	pre-market gap -7.78% · average volume 13,326k · 1-day return -7.42%	-3.36%	-2.86%
2026-09-29	DASHDoorDash	pre-market gap -7.67% · average volume 4,105k · 1-day return -7.74%	+3.81%	+4.15%
2026-09-28	SSentinelOne, Inc. Class A	pre-market gap -7.81% · average volume 9,521k · 1-day return -6.67%	+3.98%	+4.33%
2026-09-25	ROLRollins, Inc.	pre-market gap -6.46% · average volume 6,272k · 1-day return -6.43%	+0.07%	-0.27%
2026-09-24	HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited	pre-market gap -7.97% · average volume 4,649k · 1-day return -5.50%	+0.05%	-0.35%
2026-09-23	CHTRCharter Communications	pre-market gap -7.79% · average volume 2,728k · 1-day return -3.76%	-0.12%	+0.52%
2026-09-22	SMSM Energy Company	pre-market gap -7.90% · average volume 4,156k · 1-day return -6.00%	-0.76%	-0.68%
2026-09-21	SDOTSadot Group Inc.	pre-market gap -7.98% · average volume 2,834k · 1-day return -7.64%	+0.90%	-0.05%
2026-09-18	TTANServiceTitan, Inc.	pre-market gap -7.43% · average volume 3,654k · 1-day return -7.53%	+2.99%	+2.94%
2026-09-17	CRKComstock Resources, Inc.	pre-market gap -7.91% · average volume 2,827k · 1-day return -8.46%	-0.62%	-0.54%
2026-09-16	CAVACava Group	pre-market gap -7.91% · average volume 2,771k · 1-day return -8.93%	-2.22%	-1.50%
2026-09-15	SMCISupermicro	pre-market gap -7.91% · average volume 39,066k · 1-day return -8.38%	-2.99%	-2.64%
2026-09-14	LITELumentum	pre-market gap -7.98% · average volume 4,160k · 1-day return -0.93%	-3.00%	-3.25%
2026-09-11	ALMAlmonty Industries Inc. - Common Shares	pre-market gap -7.91% · average volume 6,467k · 1-day return -9.60%	-9.20%	-9.15%
2026-09-10	BRUNBoost Run Inc.	pre-market gap -7.86% · average volume 2,588k · 1-day return -7.76%	-1.73%	-1.70%
2026-09-09	ALABAstera Labs, Inc.	pre-market gap -7.80% · average volume 3,508k · 1-day return -6.94%	+5.04%	+5.26%
2026-09-08	AMGNAmgen	pre-market gap -7.59% · average volume 2,237k · 1-day return -1.55%	-3.85%	-3.44%

Best session +5.04%, worst -9.20%. Over this few sessions the mean is mostly the sum of its two or three largest days, which is the whole reason the verdict is read only after 60, 120, 250, 500 sessions and frozen in between.

This is not investment advice. Tickbird is an automated experiment. It publishes a general analysis, not a personal recommendation, and it makes no promise about any outcome. Past results do not predict future ones. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.