Its own screen, whole market

First green day

Sessions

first reading at 60

Mean return

-0.34%

Open to close, per session

vs S&P 500

-0.28%

t = -0.43

Verdict

no verdict yet

22 of the 60 sessions before the first reading. No verdict until then.

The hypothesis, as registered

The rebound after a slide begins on the first up day, not on the day of capitulation. The oversold-rebound strategy buys the falling knife; this one waits for it to land and buys the first sign that sellers are done.

The rule

Tradable stocks down 8% or more over five sessions, RSI under 40, whose last session closed up. Take the deepest five-day loss. Abstains when no slide has yet printed an up day.

Registered on 2026-09-07. Neither text has changed since, and neither will: a strategy that needs amending is retired and a new one registered in its place.

Session by session

Newest first. The numbers in the middle column are the ones the rule actually read that morning. Losing days stay.

Session	Pick	What the rule read	Return	vs S&P 500
2026-10-14	VEEETwin Vee PowerCats Co.	5-day return -14.03% · 1-day return +1.35% · RSI 22.1	pending	pending
2026-10-13	GRMLGreenland Mines Ltd	5-day return -17.98% · 1-day return +16.44% · RSI 27.2	no price found	—
2026-10-12	AVBPArriVent BioPharma, Inc.	5-day return -40.82% · 1-day return +0.12% · RSI 20.2	no price found	—
2026-10-09	IARTIntegra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation	5-day return -16.66% · 1-day return +3.15% · RSI 38.3	no price found	—
2026-10-08	AVBPArriVent BioPharma, Inc.	5-day return -44.22% · 1-day return +11.93% · RSI 25.1	+0.60%	+0.72%
2026-10-07	CTVACorteva	5-day return -82.14% · 1-day return +12.27% · RSI 5.3	no price found	—
2026-10-06	CTVACorteva	5-day return -84.06% · 1-day return +3.94% · RSI 3.2	+6.35%	+6.22%
2026-10-05	LQDALiquidia Corporation	5-day return -58.15% · 1-day return +2.32% · RSI 22.3	-1.53%	-2.20%
2026-10-02	HUTHut 8 Corp.	5-day return -14.95% · 1-day return +0.30% · RSI 38.3	+0.02%	+0.14%
2026-10-01	SWMRSwarmer, Inc	5-day return -21.59% · 1-day return +8.92% · RSI 22.1	-6.40%	-6.35%
2026-09-30	CGEMCullinan Therapeutics, Inc.	5-day return -29.72% · 1-day return +1.87% · RSI 19.7	-0.26%	+0.24%
2026-09-29	CGEMCullinan Therapeutics, Inc.	5-day return -29.98% · 1-day return +0.95% · RSI 16.7	+1.53%	+1.88%
2026-09-28	QNSTQuinStreet, Inc.	5-day return -17.89% · 1-day return +0.07% · RSI 14.4	-0.91%	-0.55%
2026-09-25	XENEXenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Common Shares	5-day return -32.95% · 1-day return +4.10% · RSI 10.1	-3.04%	-3.38%
2026-09-24	FLNCFluence Energy, Inc.	5-day return -16.24% · 1-day return +4.26% · RSI 24.8	+0.54%	+0.13%
2026-09-23	FLNCFluence Energy, Inc.	5-day return -21.47% · 1-day return +0.96% · RSI 21.5	+0.85%	+1.50%
2026-09-22	FLNCFluence Energy, Inc.	5-day return -21.47% · 1-day return +0.96% · RSI 21.5	-2.94%	-2.85%
2026-09-21	PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.	5-day return -17.32% · 1-day return +2.91% · RSI 27.1	+1.65%	+0.70%
2026-09-18	DFNST3 Defense Inc.	5-day return -19.92% · 1-day return +2.60% · RSI 17.8	-5.78%	-5.83%
2026-09-17	CRBPCorbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc.	5-day return -18.06% · 1-day return +4.91% · RSI 15.5	-0.14%	-0.07%
2026-09-16	INIOINNIO N.V.	5-day return -18.47% · 1-day return +1.95% · RSI 35.0	+2.80%	+3.52%
2026-09-15	TTANServiceTitan, Inc.	5-day return -32.90% · 1-day return +7.88% · RSI 21.7	+2.22%	+2.57%
2026-09-14	GWREGuidewire Software	5-day return -30.53% · 1-day return +0.59% · RSI 28.2	+4.89%	+4.64%
2026-09-11	RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.	5-day return -45.72% · 1-day return +0.63% · RSI 18.1	-0.90%	-0.84%
2026-09-10	CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd	5-day return -18.73% · 1-day return +0.10% · RSI 21	-1.10%	-1.08%
2026-09-09	ENOVEnovis Corporation	5-day return -18.75% · 1-day return +7.65% · RSI 24.5	-4.56%	-4.34%
2026-09-08	RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.	5-day return -40.26% · 1-day return +3.03% · RSI 20.5	-1.44%	-1.03%

Best session +6.35%, worst -6.40%. Over this few sessions the mean is mostly the sum of its two or three largest days, which is the whole reason the verdict is read only after 60, 120, 250, 500 sessions and frozen in between.

This is not investment advice. Tickbird is an automated experiment. It publishes a general analysis, not a personal recommendation, and it makes no promise about any outcome. Past results do not predict future ones. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.