The product's shortlist

Single strongest conviction

Sessions

first reading at 60

Mean return

-0.79%

Open to close, per session

vs S&P 500

-0.77%

t = -0.71

Verdict

no verdict yet

22 of the 60 sessions before the first reading. No verdict until then.

The hypothesis, as registered

A model's stated confidence carries information that averaging destroys. The consensus blends three opinions into one number; this takes the one call, from any model on any finalist, that was made with the most conviction — and asks whether conviction is calibrated.

The rule

Across every finalist and every model that answered: the single bullish verdict with the highest confidence. Ties go to the higher quantitative score. Abstains only if no model was bullish on anything.

Registered on 2026-09-07. Neither text has changed since, and neither will: a strategy that needs amending is retired and a new one registered in its place.

Session by session

Newest first. The numbers in the middle column are the ones the rule actually read that morning. Losing days stay.

Session	Pick	What the rule read	Return	vs S&P 500
2026-10-14	XNCRXencor, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.93 · quant score 37.2 · model consensus 90	pending	pending
2026-10-13	DHTDHT Holdings, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.90 · quant score 65.7 · model consensus 65	no price found	—
2026-10-12	CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.91 · quant score 66.8 · model consensus 76	no price found	—
2026-10-09	PCRXPacira BioSciences, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.96 · quant score 71.5 · model consensus 66	-0.06%	-0.36%
2026-10-08	WOLFWolfspeed, Inc. Common Stock New	model perplexity · confidence 0.93 · quant score 69.7 · model consensus 75.8	-11.42%	-11.30%
2026-10-07	OPCHOption Care Health	model perplexity · confidence 0.98 · quant score 71.9 · model consensus 66.3	no price found	—
2026-10-06	PTCPTC Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.97 · quant score 71.8 · model consensus 78.2	-0.11%	-0.23%
2026-10-05	XRPNArmada Acquisition Corp. II	model perplexity · confidence 0.84 · quant score 69.5 · model consensus 64	-13.13%	-13.79%
2026-10-02	SYNASynaptics	model perplexity · confidence 0.94 · quant score 69.5 · model consensus 65.7	-0.46%	-0.34%
2026-10-01	ACMRACM Research, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.86 · quant score 72.5 · model consensus 64.3	+2.55%	+2.60%
2026-09-30	CCLCarnival Corporation	model perplexity · confidence 0.86 · quant score 75.8 · model consensus 64.3	-3.35%	-2.85%
2026-09-29	BEAGBold Eagle Acquisition Corp.	model perplexity · confidence 0.93 · quant score 46.3 · model consensus 88.3	-0.09%	+0.25%
2026-09-28	AKAMAkamai Technologies	model perplexity · confidence 0.84 · quant score 67.7 · model consensus 86.8	-3.33%	-2.98%
2026-09-25	BBBlackBerry Limited	model perplexity · confidence 0.86 · quant score 83.6 · model consensus 64.3	-6.17%	-6.51%
2026-09-24	CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.84 · quant score 58.5 · model consensus 76.5	+10.58%	+10.17%
2026-09-23	GRALGRAIL, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.87 · quant score 82.1 · model consensus 74.8	no price found	—
2026-09-22	GRALGRAIL, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.89 · quant score 78.1 · model consensus 64.8	+1.66%	+1.74%
2026-09-21	SNDKSandisk	model perplexity · confidence 0.91 · quant score 76.7 · model consensus 90.5	-3.29%	-4.23%
2026-09-18	GNRCGenerac	model perplexity · confidence 0.93 · quant score 70.0 · model consensus 90.2	-0.99%	-1.04%
2026-09-17	ACVAACV Auctions Inc. Class A	model perplexity · confidence 0.95 · quant score 61.1 · model consensus 65.8	+0.19%	+0.26%
2026-09-16	RVTYRevvity	model perplexity · confidence 0.86 · quant score 73.7 · model consensus 74.7	+3.44%	+4.16%
2026-09-15	BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.93 · quant score 74.3 · model consensus 65.5	+1.53%	+1.89%
2026-09-14	DSGXThe Descartes Systems Group Inc.	model perplexity · confidence 0.91 · quant score 65.9 · model consensus 88.8	+3.84%	+3.59%
2026-09-11	ACVAACV Auctions Inc. Class A	model perplexity · confidence 0.90 · quant score 60.0 · model consensus 77	-0.43%	-0.37%
2026-09-10	METAMeta Platforms	model perplexity · confidence 0.93 · quant score 78.8 · model consensus 75.8	-1.41%	-1.38%
2026-09-09	PHVSPharvaris N.V.	model perplexity · confidence 0.89 · quant score 81.8 · model consensus 91.3	-0.42%	-0.20%
2026-09-08	BEBloom Energy Corporation Class A	model perplexity · confidence 0.92 · quant score 81.8 · model consensus 75.7	+3.53%	+3.94%

Best session +10.58%, worst -13.13%. Over this few sessions the mean is mostly the sum of its two or three largest days, which is the whole reason the verdict is read only after 60, 120, 250, 500 sessions and frozen in between.

This is not investment advice. Tickbird is an automated experiment. It publishes a general analysis, not a personal recommendation, and it makes no promise about any outcome. Past results do not predict future ones. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.